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Posts From Jonathan Carr

Gorgeous October Conditions

Gorgeous October Conditions

🕔01:19, 19.Oct 2026

Discussion: This week should feature some of the most beautiful October NJ conditions we’ve seen in a while. We’re talking chilly-but-comfortable highs in the 60s, lots of sunshine, and colder overnights where at least the usual colder spots (NNJ elevations

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Stormy Fall Continues

Stormy Fall Continues

🕔22:40, 15.Oct 2026

Discussion: A warm sector will bring more anomalous warmth to NJ on Friday with stiff SW winds. This should set up a storm front in the evening but a very short one. The precipitation strip looks very thin on model

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Rude Awakening after Anomalous Warmth

Rude Awakening after Anomalous Warmth

🕔01:47, 13.Oct 2026

Discussion: This crap (80 degrees with humidity) was supposed to be over for the year. But Isaias decided to form and hurl a bunch of warmth and humidity at NJ as a ridge develops. This is going to result in

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Saturday Better than Sunday

Saturday Better than Sunday

🕔00:25, 10.Oct 2026

Discussion: Isaias made landfall in far W FL Panhandle this evening as a category 2 hurricane. The trend is a quick fall apart. It’s already down to a cat 1 with more weakening expected into Saturday morning. Isaias will now

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Gorgeous Fall Conditions

Gorgeous Fall Conditions

🕔16:28, 5.Oct 2026

Discussion: A rather zonal look to the upper levels this week with a general W/NW flow of colder air aloft from Canada. Most surface conditions will revolve around high pressure moving across the E US/Mid-Atlantic US from W to E.

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Weekend Outlook – Mixed Transition into Fall

Weekend Outlook – Mixed Transition into Fall

🕔18:11, 2.Oct 2026

Discussion: The upper jet, observed at 250mb, looks zonal to the N of NJ this weekend. It will try to kink up a little as a trough misses to the N of NJ Monday. That will however introduce a cooler

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Weekly Outlook – Summer Gasps Back

Weekly Outlook – Summer Gasps Back

🕔19:57, 28.Sep 2026

Discussion: The nor’easter is out of here and good riddance! Although I must admit, it felt kind of good to track a low-pressure system close to the 40N/70W benchmark. I don’t think we’re going to see the last of systems

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Nor’easter Dissolves and Departs

Nor’easter Dissolves and Departs

🕔13:27, 27.Sep 2026

Discussion: I want to reemphasize a few points. Awesome followers can skip this paragraph. Throughout this entire week, I maintained that areas away from the ocean would see a run-of-mill manageable rain and wind event experienced many times before. I

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Nor’easter Approaching

Nor’easter Approaching

🕔16:50, 25.Sep 2026

Discussion Models have trended even more towards a harder New Jersey hit from this weekend’s nor’easter. Here are the updated rain, wind and coastal flooding impacts with graphics and text: Hazardous Impacts Rain The storm’s outer precipitation bands are nearing

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Nor’easter a GO!

Nor’easter a GO!

🕔17:29, 24.Sep 2026

Discussion: We’ve beaten the physics of this nor’easter setup to death this week. Organizing low pressure off the SE US/OBX phased into low that will run into a block. The block will trap the storm into at least a stall/retrograde

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