Discussion: The upper jet should be over of just N of NJ this week. That jives with the expected average profile of geopotential height anomalies of the near-zonal flow pattern. There will be an upper-low/trough lifting into SE Canada Tues-Wed
Discussion: Not too many changes in the evolution of this weekend’s forecast. We still have a slow-moving linear area of convergence that should push across NJ from NW to SE and meet up with a weak coastal disturbance. Not much
Discussion: The trough that dominated the weekend is moving out but the back-side of it is still around for today (Monday). 250mb wind and 500mb geopotential height analysis is concurrent in suggesting a ridge building behind the trough for much
Discussion: We’ve had a nice little break between the lower geopotential heights with current weak ridging. This allowed for an immaculate Saturday night through today (Tuesday). Another area of lower heights will start moving in late tonight. A few pieces
Discussion: A rather zonal look at 250mb wind analysis regarding the upper jet. 500mb heights suggests an upper-low dominating this weekend but gradually giving way to nicer conditions with an approaching ridge for next week. That’s what will get us
Discussion: Real quick, the winds have subsided, and we’ll drop to a range of 40-50 across NJ tonight/overnight (Monday night) with low humidity. Tuesday should be the last pleasant day with nice conditions for a while. A series of lower
Discussion: The upper jet, observed at 250mb, is streaking across the Midwest US and splitting N and S over the Mid-Atlantic US. This is creating some divergence aloft to help power thunderstorms at the muggy surface. At 500mb I’m seeing
Discussion: Let’s call it what it was. After Friday’s rain and storms, beautiful conditions (pollen aside) settled across the region for Saturday through today. Tonight, we’ll lose that as a rain system moves in from the S from a decaying
Discussion: With no major features over the next week, the upper-jet looks rather inconclusive IMO. Stepping down to 500mb, again no major features. A current upper-low will move out after today (Friday) as ridging establishes across the Mid-Atlantic and NorthEast
Discussion: Temps tonight should drop to about 60 statewide, give or take a few degrees, as periods of rain continue moving through on-and-off. The upper low remains trapped to the S of the Great Lakes. It will reach peak intensity
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