Discussion: The squirrels are going crazy. The acorn drop this year was aggressive. The weak La Nina ENSO state looks to hold. The -QBO (westerly winds around the equator) look to hold. The MJO is looking like phase 6-7 into
Discussion: 250mb analysis indicates upper NW flow for much of the next 6-7 days outside of a small break this Saturday. 500mb geopotential height analysis reflects this with a small break in the lower height anomalies on Saturday. With that
Discussion: Nothing has changed with respect to the upper level look this week. If you look at 250mb wind analysis, you’ll see a well-carved trough swinging through the E US with a solid jet streak in the Positive Vorticity Advection
Discussion: 250mb analysis indicates zonal flow for this weekend before shaping into an aggressive trough by Monday with a raging PVA sector from coastal SE US through the 40N/70W benchmark. 500mb analysis jives with the 250mb look with a deep
Discussion: A bit more rain is likely Friday night into Saturday morning but that should clear by mid-to-late Saturday morning allowing a dry Saturday afternoon-evening once things clear out. A very seasonally anomalous trough is then expected to move into
Discussion: A potent upper-level shortwave will graze through NNJ Wednesday night into Thursday morning. It’s not a trough or even an upper low, just a potent shortwave as seen below here in both 500mb geopotential heights and 500mb vorticity (solid
Discussion: We’re going to stay in article format for this week’s outlook since a very active pattern is setting up. I’m seeing low after low through mid-November. That doesn’t necessarily mean rain or snow for NJ with each of the
Discussion: Our rainstorm has ended regarding precipitation. All of NJ saw at least the .75 inch expectation. Much of WNJ just reached that. Parts of ENJ, especially NENJ, exceeded the 2 inch mark with some localized areas seeing between 2.5
Discussion: The E US trough formation is well underway. Luckily, Melissa will not be captured by it or else the east coast might have seen another Sandy-like scenario. If you’ve been following along, especially in Weather NJ premium areas, I
Discussion: With an anticipated rain event this week, we’re going to go article mode instead of weekly outlook. Today (Monday) was another day where skies were sunny as temps maxed in the 55-60 range…another beautiful fall today to add on
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