Discussion: We’re now in a warm sector. The warm front is through and winds are changing to more of a SW direction with increasing temperatures and humidity. A round or two of showers and thunderstorms are possible today (Wednesday) and
Discussion: The upper-jet, observed at 250mb, should stay N of NJ for most of the foreseeable future outside of a small dip this Thursday-Friday. That jives with 500mb heights analysis of the bottom of an expected trough grazing through NJ
Discussion: The upper-jet, observed at 250mb, should stay to the N of NJ for the next week or so. This will keep NJ under slightly higher geopotential heights, observed at 500mb, for the same period—producing warmer conditions at the surface.
Discussion: The upper jet should be over of just N of NJ this week. That jives with the expected average profile of geopotential height anomalies of the near-zonal flow pattern. There will be an upper-low/trough lifting into SE Canada Tues-Wed
Discussion: Not too many changes in the evolution of this weekend’s forecast. We still have a slow-moving linear area of convergence that should push across NJ from NW to SE and meet up with a weak coastal disturbance. Not much
Discussion: The trough that dominated the weekend is moving out but the back-side of it is still around for today (Monday). 250mb wind and 500mb geopotential height analysis is concurrent in suggesting a ridge building behind the trough for much
Discussion: A rather zonal look at 250mb wind analysis regarding the upper jet. 500mb heights suggests an upper-low dominating this weekend but gradually giving way to nicer conditions with an approaching ridge for next week. That’s what will get us
Discussion: Real quick, the winds have subsided, and we’ll drop to a range of 40-50 across NJ tonight/overnight (Monday night) with low humidity. Tuesday should be the last pleasant day with nice conditions for a while. A series of lower
Discussion: The upper jet, observed at 250mb, is streaking across the Midwest US and splitting N and S over the Mid-Atlantic US. This is creating some divergence aloft to help power thunderstorms at the muggy surface. At 500mb I’m seeing
Discussion: Let’s call it what it was. After Friday’s rain and storms, beautiful conditions (pollen aside) settled across the region for Saturday through today. Tonight, we’ll lose that as a rain system moves in from the S from a decaying
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