Turning Nice
Discussion: We’ll be in a split jet zonal pattern for this weekend into next, the N stream to the N of NJ and the S stream to the S of NJ…which is why there won’t be a phased snowstorm this
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Posts From Jonathan Carr
Snowstorm to Likely Graze SENJ
Discussion: This storm has certainly juked a lot of us forecasters around. In full and honest transparency, if I haven’t already made it clear, uncertainty is high with this. We’re dealing with specific phase timing required + a possible InVerted
Cold and Windy as Snowstorm Grazes SENJ
Discussion: Heartbreak for the snow lover has continued overnight as models trended even further SE than they did yesterday. Energy is now sampled over land for both pieces of energy involved, and it still looks like the southern stream is
A Deep Dive Update for Wed-Thurs Snowstorm
Discussion: Today’s article is going to be a deep dive into what’s going on with the Wednesday-Thursday snowstorm signal. So that I don’t waste anyone’s time, this article will not be conclusive, nor will it offer an official forecast. That’s
Snowstorm Chances Increasing for Wed-Thurs
Discussion: There’s a lot to talk about. I think it’s better to break it down by time period and hazard rather than by hazard type only. So, let’s start with right now and walk through next week. Today’s Snowy Burst:
Weekend Snow/Ice/Rain Storm Approaching
Discussion: A weak low will ride the thermal boundary and drive into W PA from the TN area tomorrow (Saturday). Initial precipitation will crash into a wall of cold air at first and generate a front-end snowfall for most of
Weekend Snow/Ice/Rain Storm Developing
Discussion: Before we get to wintry and non-wintry expectations for the weekend, let’s look at the forecast leading up to the event. We’ve been in daily article storm mode for a while now and it’s easy to lose focus on
Active Pattern Continues
Discussion: We’re in the middle of a six, potentially seven, system onslaught. Three of them have passed, the two snow-to-ice-to-rain systems last week and last night’s CNJ/SNJ event. The next two (system #4 and #5) are also wintry-to-non-wintry systems and
CNJ/SNJ Snowstorm Developing
Discussion: A wave will traverse the gradient thermal boundary from W to E today across the US and meet up with a weak coastal low off OBX Tuesday afternoon. The coastal low should enhance a flat/zonal precipitation shield of snowfall
Snowstorm Detected for Tues-Wed
Discussion: If the 18Z model guidance remains consistent through this evening for Tuesday-Wednesday, we will transition to storm mode during the Super Bowl. That means serious tracking for a legitimate snowstorm has begun and there will be zero tolerance for
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