Nuisance Coastal Low Passes By
Discussion: Today’s conditions I actually find relaxing and enjoyable, so long as we’re not in the middle of a rainy pattern. Onshore flow and rain this time of year have a unique feel that I’ve grown to like over my
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Posts From Jonathan Carr
A Mostly Great Week
Discussion: Though the upper pattern appears more meridional than zonal at times, there are no anomalous geopotential heights in either direction the next 7 days or so. At this surface, these next 7 days looked like aces all the way
Mixed Conditions Reload Cooler Drier Pattern
Discussion: So, August 2025 came in about 2-4 degrees below average. Sure, August had a couple of hot waves here and there but you can’t deny the prolonged periods of pleasant-to-warm days and cool dry nights. We’ve been continuously placed
Great Start. Becoming Unsettled.
Discussion: The upper levels indicate a temporary break in the cooler pattern this week as a surface low and upper low/trough wraps up N of the Great Lakes—eventually yanking a warm sector northward over the Mid-Atlantic US. We’ll remain pleasant
A Great Labor Day Weekend Forecast
Discussion: A quick note about the photo… I love me some sweet white Jersey corn this time of year and I’ll be making some this weekend along with some tomato mozzarella salad made with Jersey tomatoes. A happy Labor Day
The Tale of Several Lows
Discussion: Tomorrow I’ll provide an extended holiday weekend outlook covering Friday-Monday in detail. Today I wanted to cover the broader pattern that has locked in until likely Sept-10ish, possibly longer. It’s the tale of several lows. As we know, low
The Good Stuff is Here
Discussion: The upper jet and heights are suggesting a series of upper lows/troughs swinging through this week. A cold front is currently riding the front of a trough and pushing through NJ from W to E which is dropping dew
Conditions Improve Drastically
Discussion: Erin is steaming away from the E US towards the N Atlantic/European region. Gone are any shower or coastal flooding concerns. Beach erosion seems minor but won’t be measured until Saturday evening and that’s because some dangerous rip currents
Erin Grazes Jersey. Summer Slips Away.
Discussion: This will likely be the last update focused on Hurricane Erin. The rain is donezo and will continue to pull away from the coast overnight. All that is left from Erin are rough surf, dangerous rip currents and a
Hurricane Erin to Stay Offshore of NJ
Discussion: Hurricane Erin’s track is pretty locked in at this point. She’s a few hundred miles NE of the Bahamas and has turned well to the NW. Erin will pass between two ridges (an area of weakness), one over SC/SE
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