Discussion: The latest model data is significantly backing off all snow chances in the next week or so and instead is gearing up for a lead-in to abnormally warm temperatures March 5-forward. There are still a few waves to discuss,
Discussion: The clipper came through overnight/this morning and dropped a coating to an inch or so before quickly melting with temp increases. Minimal impact. Tomorrow night’s slider wave, if it happens far N enough, is looking more like a conversational
Discussion: You can really feel the late-February higher sun angle and climatology now in play. I first felt it last Sunday (Feb 15) when only 1-3 inches of snowfall stuck (mostly on grass only) from 3-6 inches falling out of
Discussion: This will be our final call snow map and forecast for this system. We’ve upgraded NNJ to now be all in the 12+ zone. That puts all of NJ in a KABOOM and still leaves Dude Where’s my Carr?
Discussion: I’m sorry all of Jersey. But YOU ARE IN THE KABOOM ZONE NOW. This storm is going to bring heavy snowfall, gusty winds, power outages, and coastal flooding to New Jersey between Sunday (tomorrow) morning and Monday evening (Feb
Discussion: Today we’re going to narrow the range of possible snowstorm outcomes to a first call forecast. There’s still some disagreement in snowfall amounts and timing due to disagreement in the upper levels meaning suboptimal confidence. Especially with a phase
Discussion: Some of the latest model guidance starts this snowstorm as early as 6-7am Sunday morning. That puts NJ potentially a little over 60 hours away from first flakes. The problem is that we still have a significant amount of
Discussion: Not much has changed from yesterday. We’re still 4 days away. Deep breaths. Still a lot that can happen to either reinforce a major snowstorm hit or cause an out to sea miss. I will say though, I am
Discussion: On Friday the 13th, the signal for this weekend was identified from specific teleconnection behavior analysis, specifically the point at which the negative NAO crosses into positive and a transient spike in the PNA/dip of the EPO. This traditionally
Discussion: It’s important to re-emphasize that this is not a major snowstorm. At the end of the day, it’s a weak surface low becoming a weak coastal low that’s going to clip parts of NJ with wet snow on its
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