Discussion: Our current situation (Wednesday afternoon) is very synoptic driven. A ~990mb low is tracking across the Great Lakes. It has dragged a warm front over NJ from S to N putting us in the warm sector for now. That’s
Discussion: We’re now in an expected milder air mass until about Wednesday, with Wednesday likely to peak as the warmest day of the week. We are then going to drop into a colder Thanksgiving Thursday through Sunday morning with another
Discussion: The upper level flow will stay zonal across the E US from now until about Black Friday with a weak ridge flex next Tuesday-Wednesday. That’s when surface temperatures could spike above 60 across parts of New Jersey. A trough
Discussion: The squirrels are going crazy. The acorn drop this year was aggressive. The weak La Nina ENSO state looks to hold. The -QBO (westerly winds around the equator) look to hold. The MJO is looking like phase 6-7 into
Discussion: 250mb analysis indicates upper NW flow for much of the next 6-7 days outside of a small break this Saturday. 500mb geopotential height analysis reflects this with a small break in the lower height anomalies on Saturday. With that
Discussion: Nothing has changed with respect to the upper level look this week. If you look at 250mb wind analysis, you’ll see a well-carved trough swinging through the E US with a solid jet streak in the Positive Vorticity Advection
Discussion: 250mb analysis indicates zonal flow for this weekend before shaping into an aggressive trough by Monday with a raging PVA sector from coastal SE US through the 40N/70W benchmark. 500mb analysis jives with the 250mb look with a deep
Discussion: A bit more rain is likely Friday night into Saturday morning but that should clear by mid-to-late Saturday morning allowing a dry Saturday afternoon-evening once things clear out. A very seasonally anomalous trough is then expected to move into
Discussion: A potent upper-level shortwave will graze through NNJ Wednesday night into Thursday morning. It’s not a trough or even an upper low, just a potent shortwave as seen below here in both 500mb geopotential heights and 500mb vorticity (solid
Discussion: We’re going to stay in article format for this week’s outlook since a very active pattern is setting up. I’m seeing low after low through mid-November. That doesn’t necessarily mean rain or snow for NJ with each of the
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