There’s high confidence that a strong cold front will push through Thursday afternoon/evening. This front will be driven by a piece of polar vortex energy and might as well be called an Arctic front. I think we’re starting to see
Discussion: We’ve beat this weak NWNJ snow event to death at this point. This is our final call map heading into it. Live observations will begin late tonight as we look at the precipitation approaching from the W in real-time.
Discussion: Currently, we have precipitation pushing through ahead of a cold front that is expected to pass through later this evening. The cold front is hooked to a low near Toronto that is pushing eastward into SE Canada/Maine. A warm
Discussion: To touch on the rest of the weekend very briefly, the rest of today/tonight (Saturday PM) looks chilly and dry. Some rain (less than a quarter inch likely) could push through Sunday (late-morning through early evening) ahead of a
Discussion: Our current situation (Wednesday afternoon) is very synoptic driven. A ~990mb low is tracking across the Great Lakes. It has dragged a warm front over NJ from S to N putting us in the warm sector for now. That’s
Discussion: We’re now in an expected milder air mass until about Wednesday, with Wednesday likely to peak as the warmest day of the week. We are then going to drop into a colder Thanksgiving Thursday through Sunday morning with another
Discussion: The upper level flow will stay zonal across the E US from now until about Black Friday with a weak ridge flex next Tuesday-Wednesday. That’s when surface temperatures could spike above 60 across parts of New Jersey. A trough
Discussion: The squirrels are going crazy. The acorn drop this year was aggressive. The weak La Nina ENSO state looks to hold. The -QBO (westerly winds around the equator) look to hold. The MJO is looking like phase 6-7 into
Discussion: 250mb analysis indicates upper NW flow for much of the next 6-7 days outside of a small break this Saturday. 500mb geopotential height analysis reflects this with a small break in the lower height anomalies on Saturday. With that
Discussion: Nothing has changed with respect to the upper level look this week. If you look at 250mb wind analysis, you’ll see a well-carved trough swinging through the E US with a solid jet streak in the Positive Vorticity Advection
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