Discussion: The “two snow systems in one weekend” idea has gained legs. For the first time all week, we have a slightly increased confidence in how the weekend will play out. The model data has converged towards the following solution.
Discussion: Let’s do the immediate rain first. After a warm couple of days, rain arrives tonight around 8-10pm for most of NJ, falls mostly overnight and clears out by early afternoon tomorrow (Wednesday), if not sooner by late morning. This
Discussion: We’ve had a nice little break between the lower geopotential heights with current weak ridging. This allowed for an immaculate Saturday night through today (Tuesday). Another area of lower heights will start moving in late tonight. A few pieces
Discussion: Heartbreak for the snow lover has continued overnight as models trended even further SE than they did yesterday. Energy is now sampled over land for both pieces of energy involved, and it still looks like the southern stream is
Discussion: Today’s article is going to be a deep dive into what’s going on with the Wednesday-Thursday snowstorm signal. So that I don’t waste anyone’s time, this article will not be conclusive, nor will it offer an official forecast. That’s
Discussion: Before we get to wintry and non-wintry expectations for the weekend, let’s look at the forecast leading up to the event. We’ve been in daily article storm mode for a while now and it’s easy to lose focus on
Discussion: If the 18Z model guidance remains consistent through this evening for Tuesday-Wednesday, we will transition to storm mode during the Super Bowl. That means serious tracking for a legitimate snowstorm has begun and there will be zero tolerance for
Discussion: NJ is currently sitting under the bottom of a flat trough of cold air which extends into SE Canada…maybe just W of the bottom of it but still just inside the colder zone. This configuration is supporting W/NW or
Discussion: There comes a time where a forecaster like me needs closure. I began tracking and discussing yesterday’s snowstorm signal on January 8 and it’s been a long process of data analysis and live observations leading right up through the
Discussion: As of right now (Monday afternoon, April 17), a cold front is just passing through, powered by a Great Lakes trough/upper-low and surface low further N in Canada. This is going to set up a cooler/colder period this evening
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