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Posts From Jonathan Carr

Snow Map for Tuesday Morning

Snow Map for Tuesday Morning

🕔17:15, 21.Dec 2025

Discussion: High pressure is moving through the Mid-Atlantic US. It will push cold air downward ahead of it (tonight and tomorrow), setting up a colder environment. The high will then depart the E US into the Atlantic Ocean and draw

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Icy Start then Improvement but Windy

Icy Start then Improvement but Windy

🕔14:22, 19.Dec 2025

Discussion: This morning featured some much-needed rainfall for the region. A temperature inversion inhibited the stronger winds from reaching the surface for some. Others saw some good gusts just ahead of the main convective squall that sparked a few severe

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The Salt Washer Freeze Concerns and White Christmas Dreams

The Salt Washer Freeze Concerns and White Christmas Dreams

🕔16:15, 17.Dec 2025

Discussion: Going to cover a few things today. The up-front stuff is high confidence, and the later stuff is lower confidence. First, of high confidence, is the synoptic-driven warmth that started today (Wednesday). High temperatures this afternoon reached into the

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A Milder Break but Stormy Friday

A Milder Break but Stormy Friday

🕔15:24, 15.Dec 2025

Discussion: We’re currently in an Arctic air mass that will be slow to erode mainly because of NW flow ahead of the approaching ridge and the fresh snow pack across NJ and to areas NW of NJ. It’s probably going

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Snowstorm Approaching!

Snowstorm Approaching!

🕔11:56, 13.Dec 2025

Discussion: This is now a lower-end Significant East Coast Storm (SECS) expectation. That’s right, weak SECS. We’ve beaten it to death since around Dec 3-5 (for subscribers) when the signal was identified and here it is coming to fruition. A

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Weekend Snow a Go!

Weekend Snow a Go! Updated

🕔16:55, 12.Dec 2025

Discussion: Real quick, we’ll drop to a range of about 15-25 tonight from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts under mixed skies. Saturday will likely reach into the 40s for much of the coastal plain for daytime highs. Temperatures will then

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Weekend Snow Chances Increasing

Weekend Snow Chances Increasing Updated

🕔16:55, 11.Dec 2025

Discussion: The upper jet stream remains locked in the Montana down to MidWest US and over to the Mid-Atlantic US configuration…a zonal flow for the E US. High pressure and the surface reflection under a shortwave will squeeze moisture out

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Another NWNJ Wintry Graze

Another NWNJ Wintry Graze

🕔16:50, 9.Dec 2025

Discussion: An initial wave will track across SE Canada tonight (Tuesday night) with no impact to NJ but thatt will leave, in its wake, a thermal gradient boundary for trailing wave/stronger low to track along from the Great Lakes across

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Tracking Snow this Week-Weekend

Tracking Snow this Week-Weekend

🕔16:06, 8.Dec 2025

Discussion: We’re going to switch into daily article mode this week (rather than a single weekly outlook) as there is a lot going on. First let’s talk about the current state of things. There’s all sorts of stratospheric warming and

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Trough Energy Pattern

Trough Energy Pattern

🕔15:14, 5.Dec 2025

Discussion: The light SNJ snowfall has ended and pushed out to sea. The biggest winners were S and E of the AC Expressway with flurries falling as far N as Burlington and Ocean Counties. A trailing round of lighter precipitation

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