A surface low continues to develop just north of the Bahamas (above image courtesy of NOAA). The latest model guidance continues to suggest a ~South Carolina landfall in the Thursday-Friday time period. Whether or not the storm meets tropical storm criteria
Low pressure, as pictured by NOAA, is organizing over the Greater Antilles. It should form a surface low later today and track towards the SE US between now and early next week. If the surface low meets tropical storm criteria,
A slow moving frontal boundary will crawl across the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic US today. Instability and shear are both marginal but enough to support thunderstorm development in the afternoon-evening hours. The most concentrated region modeled for storms appears to
The coastal low pressure system currently off OBX will be drifting out to sea today-tonight. High pressure will move in behind and allow a mostly beautiful Saturday and Sunday. Just a small chance of isolated rain showers but we’ll address that
Lets harness the WeatherTrend360 proprietary weather algorithms for a look at May 2015. But first lets break New Jersey into proper climatological regions. We have the upper elevations of NWNJ, the interior coastal plain (SWNJ through CNJ and into NENJ), and the coastal
A coastal low pressure disturbance will form in the Gulf of Mexico and slowly track up the east coast between tomorrow and Saturday. Current model guidance suggests a close miss out to sea for the heavier precipitation. Fringe-impacts from the
Aside from today, the first half of the week looks great overall but rain showers and overcast skies could close out the week. We’ll have a coastal low pressure system to thank for that (impacts yet TBD) but it should leave a
A cool and dry air mass will be locked in-place over the weekend but a strong sun angle will make it bearable at the surface. Let’s look at each day: Friday high temperatures should range from lower-50s (NWNJ) to upper-50s (SENJ).
Thunderstorms should move through the region this afternoon/early evening. Like the other night, they will be mostly driven by wind-shear as instability is far from impressive. Expect a 1-2 hour period of heavy downpours, lightning, wind gusts, and possibly hail.
Low pressure in Canada will track from just north of the Great Lakes eastward—dragging a cold front beneath it through New Jersey on Wednesday. This should at least bring rain showers through the region but possibly thunderstorms as well. The short-range high-resolution
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