Discussion: I wanted to provide a longer-range outlook today after seeing a few things. The modeled teleconnections, on the Euro Ensembles, are indicating a much stronger -AO/-NAO pattern setting in. The values take a noticeable dive in the Dec 15-18
Discussion: We’re now under the NW flow that occurs in the upper levels on the back of a trough. A very weak upper-level disturbance, and associated surface low in Canada, is going to send a piece of the energy from
Discussion: Much of the state will drop below freezing tonight (Sunday night). The early weekend storm system for NJ went on to bring snow in parts of New England as a decent mid-latitude cyclone. The backside cyclonic flow of that
Discussion: Model guidance indicates a very meridional jet pattern over the next few weeks with ample below-average geopotential height anomalies. At the surface this means colder temperatures and an active pattern. Whether or not one of these systems times with
Discussion: In yesterday’s article we discussed how an Upper Level Low (ULL) in the interior SW US was handing a piece of energy off to the ULL over SE Canada/NE US. This expected transformation of cyclonic energy has not changed.
Discussion: The upper level low/trough that brought Monday’s storm and the current colder conditions is currently lingering over SE Canada and the NE US. There is also an upper level low in the interior SW US trapped under strong W
Discussion: The heaviest precipitation slug has passed through New Jersey from S/SW to N/NE. Some of those downpours were intense. I know because I was in one. Remaining precipitation today will be of an isolated-to-scattered nature, no longer widespread. We
Discussion: Two upper level disturbances, from separate N and S jet streams, are combining into a single energy vort to our W in the central US. I still see this as a pattern changer. The first of many surface lows
Discussion: A pattern change is still expected to begin with a stormy Monday (Nov 30). The upper levels will be very meridional with lower height anomalies dominating as far out as I can comfortably see (out to about Dec 10).
Discussion: Nothing crazy expected for this weekend. A weak area of high pressure will float through under slightly negative height anomalies. After a very mild Thanksgiving Day and Friday, this will produce a colder Saturday and Sunday. Saturday looks colder
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