Aug 27: Erika Likely to Threaten SE US Coast

Aug 27: Erika Likely to Threaten SE US Coast

Jonathan Carr 🕔21:27, 27.Aug 2015

Tropical Storm Erika remains weak in the NE Caribbean Sea. She will battle a strong upper-level wind shear environment over the next 24-36 hours as well as possibly the higher elevations of Hispaniola. This should keep her weak despite healthy

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Aug 26: East Coast Impact from Erika Gaining Confidence

Aug 26: East Coast Impact from Erika Gaining Confidence

Jonathan Carr 🕔11:28, 26.Aug 2015

Erika has slightly intensified overnight and this morning. The big question is “How will this impact the US east coast?” Well, the Bahamas and Florida, as stated yesterday, should begin taking Erika seriously. We’re still a ways out and model guidance

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Aug 25: Monitoring Erika

Aug 25: Monitoring Erika

Jonathan Carr 🕔10:37, 25.Aug 2015

Invest 98L has evolved into Tropical Storm Erica who presents a much more realistic threat to the east coast than Danny ever did. She has less (but some) shear to deal with but once into the Bahamas, she could intensify into

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Aug 24: Tropics Update

Aug 24: Tropics Update

Jonathan Carr 🕔12:32, 24.Aug 2015

Danny has sheared apart into tropical remnants which verified the most-likely scenario. Remnants however will continue to impact the NE Caribbean with rainfall and only light-to-moderate tropical winds. The only thing worth watching is if such tropical remnants re-intensify “if”

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Aug 23: Still Watching the Tropics

Aug 23: Still Watching the Tropics

Jonathan Carr 🕔09:49, 23.Aug 2015

Danny has been weakening over the last 24-36 hours due to an unfavorable upper level environment of wind shear and dry air. He will continue to weaken in tropical cyclone intensity but should still bring widespread heavy rainfall to the

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Aug 21: Hurricane Danny Update

Aug 21: Hurricane Danny Update

Jonathan Carr 🕔11:57, 21.Aug 2015

Hurricane Danny has intensified. He has been able to stay just south of inhibitive factors such as dry Saharan air/dust, and wind shear. He could possibly intensify further but eventually, he’s going to have to cross a strong wind shear

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Aug 20: Hurricane Danny has Formed!

Aug 20: Hurricane Danny has Formed!

Jonathan Carr 🕔10:29, 20.Aug 2015

Hurricane Danny, per latest data, has intensified down to a 992mb low pressure center. Sustained max winds are now up to 75mph. He is currently moving towards the NE region of the Caribbean as most model guidance suggested over the last 48-72

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Aug 19: Tropical Storm Danny Update

Aug 19: Tropical Storm Danny Update

Jonathan Carr 🕔10:28, 19.Aug 2015

Tropical Storm Danny is currently located at 11.3N 40.2W and heading in the general direction of the NE Caribbean region (~Northern Lesser Antilles). He should intensify into a hurricane by no later than tomorrow evening but possibly as early as overnight

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Aug 17: Monitoring the Tropics

Aug 17: Monitoring the Tropics

Jonathan Carr 🕔20:33, 17.Aug 2015

Invest 96L will continue to cross the Atlantic Ocean from where it originated SW of the Cape Verde region towards the Lesser Antilles. It’s current heading is W/NW at 10-15mph and is showing signs of organization per the NWS National

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August 16: Tropical Activity Detected!

August 16: Tropical Activity Detected!

Jonathan Carr 🕔14:34, 16.Aug 2015

The National Weather Service National Hurricane Center (NWS NHC) is currently investigating a tropical wave that originated near the Cape Verde region off western Africa: Here’s the tropical spaghetti plot, courtesy of WeatherBell Analytics: I’ll be closely monitoring the progress

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