Snow Cravings Continue (Dec 31-Jan 4)

Snow Cravings Continue (Dec 31-Jan 4)

Jonathan Carr 🕔21:00, 30.Dec 2018

Discussion: There is no point in sugar coating it. 2019 will end mild and wet and the first week or two of January also looks relatively mild. For those who dislike snow this should come as good news. For the

Read Full Article
Mild Wet Start Cold Dry Finish (Dec 28-30)

Mild Wet Start Cold Dry Finish (Dec 28-30)

Jonathan Carr 🕔11:26, 28.Dec 2018

Discussion: Above-average upper-level geopotential height anomalies will continue to dominate the pattern today (Friday) and most of Saturday. Heights should relax into a transient zonal pattern for Sunday before rebuilding to start next week. This means mild and wet today

Read Full Article
Dec 27: Rainstorm Approaching

Dec 27: Rainstorm Approaching

Jonathan Carr 🕔17:57, 27.Dec 2018

Discussion: An area of high pressure is departing the ~Maine area as low pressure cuts through the Great Lakes behind it. This should set up a warm sector rain event for most of Friday. The line of precipitation appears pretty thin

Read Full Article
Cold and Dry for the Holidays (Dec 24-28)

Cold and Dry for the Holidays (Dec 24-28)

Jonathan Carr 🕔11:05, 24.Dec 2018

Discussion: The upper levels appear flat/zonal through this week and into the weekend. At the surface high pressure should slowly float through the E US from Monday through most of Thursday. That should keep temps near-average under dry conditions. I

Read Full Article
Colder Drier Conditions Expected (Dec 21-23)

Colder Drier Conditions Expected (Dec 21-23)

Jonathan Carr 🕔12:11, 21.Dec 2018

Discussion: We continue to monitor a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SSWE) over the Arctic Ocean. Over the next few days we’re really going to see 10mb (stratospheric) height anomalies flex up that way. This squashes the tropospheric Polar Vortex (PV)

Read Full Article
Dec 19: Rainstorm Approaching

Dec 19: Rainstorm Approaching

Jonathan Carr 🕔18:36, 19.Dec 2018

Discussion: A shortwave that came off the Pacific (over California) will phase with a northern stream shortwave over the southern central US and depart over the Atlantic Ocean. The surface low of interest will form “miller-A” style out of the northern

Read Full Article
Cold Start. Mild Wet Finish (Dec 17-21)

Cold Start. Mild Wet Finish (Dec 17-21)

Jonathan Carr 🕔11:13, 17.Dec 2018

Discussion: Upper-level low energy, that influenced the departing system from this weekend, is moving out to sea as well. A trailing upper-level shortwave will dive in and keep the first part of this week cold. The coldest bottom point looks

Read Full Article
Dec 15: Wintry Sunday Possible for NNJ

Dec 15: Wintry Sunday Possible for NNJ

Jonathan Carr 🕔14:27, 15.Dec 2018

Discussion: As low pressure slides by to our S (from W to E)  high pressure is sliding by to our N (also from W to E). The low is drawing up the warmer moisture while the high is pushing down the

Read Full Article
Wet and Mild (Dec 14-16)

Wet and Mild (Dec 14-16)

Jonathan Carr 🕔15:52, 13.Dec 2018

Discussion: Our upper-level disturbance is moving out and above-average 500mb height anomalies will fill the void. That is until another, but stronger, upper-level disturbance slides through to our S this weekend. At the surface this should mean a cloudy and

Read Full Article
Dec 12: Light Snow Approaching

Dec 12: Light Snow Approaching

Jonathan Carr 🕔18:29, 12.Dec 2018

Discussion: Trends in the last 24 hours indicate a slightly northern track in the upper-level low and surface moisture beneath as well as earlier timing. The upper-level low looks to pass from W to E over the NY State/PA border and

Read Full Article