Discussion: As expected, today is the warmest day of the week. We have high pressure near Bermuda pumping return flow into New Jersey from the S/SW. And we have an approaching cold front attached to a low tracking through SE
Discussion: That was a rough Saturday. I didn’t like the feel of it all day. The clearing we had between rain ending late-morning and the storms arriving early-evening felt uncomfortably mild and destabilized. It allowed the sun to heat the
Discussion: A very temporary ridge is currently over the E US correlating with S/SW flow at the lower levels. That’s why much of NJ is still in the 50s at 11pm. Some even in the lower-60s. It’s going to remain
Discussion: High pressure will cross over NJ from NW to SE between today (Thursday) and tomorrow morning (Friday). Today/tonight’s chillier conditions are owed to the high’s front-side flow/northerly winds. Temps will hit their bottom tomorrow morning around 6am then rapidly
Discussion: New Jersey will stay under below-average height anomalies until about Thursday night (lower heights). This will allow for a cooler stretch (highs only reach lower-50s and drop into 30s at night – coldest day Thursday). A weak and unorganized
Discussion: The 250mb jet wants to stay N of NJ for the near-future with the exception of a small dip mid-next week. We’ll talk about that later. That should keep geopotential heights neutral or higher than average (weak ridging) with
Discussion: It looks like the upper-jet should push N of NJ from now through Saturday and establish a weak but unsettled E US ridge. High pressure, to the N of Bermuda, will track eastward today and tomorrow as a low
Discussion: The upper jet (250mb) should rage a bit, from SW to NE, over the Mid-Atlantic US this weekend. 500mb analysis indicates a deep upper-low tracking from the Great Lakes into SE Canada but in a very progressive trough with
Discussion: Of every 10 years, about 1-2 winters feature way-below average snowfall and in some cases a big goose egg. This winter was one of those. It was nice however to see parts of NNJ squeeze out some snow accumulation
Discussion: After reviewing overnight mesoscale model guidance and comparing to live observations on SPC mesoscale analysis, we have the best idea we’re going to have heading into this system. This article and included snow impact map represents the final forecast
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