Feb 10: Winter Storm Approaching

Feb 10: Winter Storm Approaching

Jonathan Carr 🕔12:23, 10.Feb 2021

Discussion: Most model guidance, that specializes in short-range solutions, like the RGEM/NAM/etc. have suggested a slightly more amplified shortwave and a little less suppression influence from the polar vortex energy just to our N. This means that the precipitation shield

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Feb 9: South Jersey Express

Feb 9: South Jersey Express

Jonathan Carr 🕔15:43, 9.Feb 2021

Discussion: The light North Jersey Grazer event concluded earlier today. Overall, not a big deal especially after last week’s snowfall. As expected, the extreme NNJ elevations did best with amounts gradually tapering off near I-80/I-70 as you move from extreme

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Feb 8: More Snow

Feb 8: More Snow

Jonathan Carr 🕔16:30, 8.Feb 2021

Discussion: There are seriously 5-6 winter storm signals over the next 12 days or so. Most appear to be light-to-significant with maybe a significant-to-major around Valentines Day. Let’s focus on the two immediate signals this week. Gonna have to start

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Feb 7: Storm Recap + Next Wintry Signal

Feb 7: Storm Recap + Next Wintry Signal

Jonathan Carr 🕔23:36, 7.Feb 2021

Storm Recap: Radiational cooling allowed last night’s low temperatures to dip below freezing across parts of SENJ. This seemed a little surprising but ended up not mattering. The low’s position and track provided warmer flow that rocked counterclockwise from S

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Feb 6: Winter Storm Approaching New Jersey

Feb 6: Winter Storm Approaching New Jersey

Jonathan Carr 🕔15:30, 6.Feb 2021

Discussion: The general trends since yesterday have been a slightly more expansive jackpot region to the NW (still misses NWNJ directly) which brings a little more mixing/rain concerns for SENJ to start the event. The snow is looking very wet

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Feb 5: Winter Storm Targeting New Jersey

Feb 5: Winter Storm Targeting New Jersey

Jonathan Carr 🕔16:30, 5.Feb 2021

Discussion: The upper pattern data is gaining confidence in the N branch digging and hanging back a little, allowing the S branch to catch up and take the upper-level trough axis to near-neutral. East coast heights respond higher and take

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Feb 4: Another Winter Storm Detected

Feb 4: Another Winter Storm Detected

Jonathan Carr 🕔14:28, 4.Feb 2021

Discussion: Real quick, we still expect a weak disturbance moving through Friday. It seems nuisance at this point with only trace/light accumulations for NWNJ elevations. Maybe non-accumulating snow as far SE as 95. It will be out of here by

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A Historical Snowstorm for New Jersey

A Historical Snowstorm for New Jersey

Jonathan Carr 🕔15:53, 3.Feb 2021

Discussion: I think it is best to address the January 31-February 3, 2021 winter storm by the phases they were laid out in our initial Jan 30 forecast article: Phase I: The Onset We had a very cold air mass

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Feb 1: Winter Storm Update

Feb 1: Winter Storm Update

Jonathan Carr 🕔22:35, 1.Feb 2021

Discussion: This is quite a winter storm. I’m upgrading NNJ to DUDE WHERE’S MY CAR? status. There’s no doubt in my mind that areas up that way exceed 24” of total storm snow accumulation in many spots. Some of you

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