Colder Conditions (Oct 30-Nov 1)

Colder Conditions (Oct 30-Nov 1)

Jonathan Carr 🕔16:16, 29.Oct 2020

Discussion: Two dips in the jet (troughs) should push through NJ in the near future. One Friday and another Monday-Tuesday. Said days will therefore feel noticeably colder. Between the dips should be some moderation for Saturday and Sunday but still

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Oct 27: First Snow for NJ Elevations?

Oct 27: First Snow for NJ Elevations? Updated

Jonathan Carr 🕔16:35, 27.Oct 2020

Discussion: Tropical Storm ZETA should intensify into a hurricane by tomorrow (Wednesday) morning before making landfall later tomorrow evening in the coastal Louisiana area. After that, ZETA will quickly lose it’s tropical characteristics and transition into a mid-latitude cyclone while

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Wet Conditions (Oct 26-30)

Wet Conditions (Oct 26-30)

Jonathan Carr 🕔15:29, 25.Oct 2020

Discussion: Nothing remarkably anomalous in the upper-levels (jet or geo heights). The current disturbance will continue to bring rain Sunday overnight into Monday morning. SENJ seeing more moisture than NWNJ. Tuesday and Wednesday look the least wet this week but

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More Transition (Oct 23-25)

More Transition (Oct 23-25)

Jonathan Carr 🕔10:01, 23.Oct 2020

Discussion: Hurricane Epsilon is currently churning in the Atlantic Ocean just to the E of Bermuda. It presents no threat to the US east coast aside from some far-reaching coastal rip currents. The most significant player for our region, in

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Dry and Mild (Oct 20-23)

Dry and Mild (Oct 20-23)

Jonathan Carr 🕔22:19, 19.Oct 2020

Discussion: The upper jet should stay to the N of NJ this week with positive 500mb geopotential anomalies in place through the weekend. This should keep conditions dry with above average temperatures through at least Saturday. Thursday looks like the

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Wet Start but Mostly Cool and Dry (Oct 16-18)

Wet Start but Mostly Cool and Dry (Oct 16-18)

Jonathan Carr 🕔23:18, 15.Oct 2020

Discussion: An upper-level trough will swing through the Mid-Atlantic and NorthEast US this weekend. On Friday there should be enough divergence aloft correlating with an area of positive vorticity advection to power a weak coastal low at the surface. This

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Mixed Conditions (Oct 12-16)

Mixed Conditions (Oct 12-16)

Jonathan Carr 🕔18:03, 11.Oct 2020

Discussion: The upper levels appear very zonal for this week. Once the rainy remnants of Delta clear out by Tuesday afternoon (Sunday night through Tuesday morning are wet and breezy), Wednesday and Thursday look seasonably mild and rather uneventful. On

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Mixed Conditions (Oct 9-11)

Mixed Conditions (Oct 9-11)

Jonathan Carr 🕔14:37, 8.Oct 2020

Discussion: It looks like tonight will be another cold one as high pressure remains to our immediate W—delivering N/NW anti-cyclonic flow into the coldest part of the overnight (Friday AM). The high should move offshore by Saturday, reversing the flow

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Mild Start. Chilly Finish (Oct 5-9)

Mild Start. Chilly Finish (Oct 5-9)

Jonathan Carr 🕔23:11, 4.Oct 2020

Discussion: A weak and transient ridge should build over the Mid-Atlantic and NorthEast US between Monday and Wednesday. This should produce milder temperatures at the surface with light SW winds. A cold front is then expected to pass through later

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Cool and Dry (Oct 3-4)

Cool and Dry (Oct 3-4)

Jonathan Carr 🕔22:49, 2.Oct 2020

Discussion: The upper pattern looks very meridional in foreseeable model guidance. While nothing specific is currently showing, I’d be surprised if a synoptic scale system didn’t materialize for the Mid-Atlantic US, whether just a baby coastal low or stronger nor’easter.

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