Unsettled Conditions (Jan 1-3)

Unsettled Conditions (Jan 1-3)

Jonathan Carr 🕔15:17, 31.Dec 2020

Discussion: Precip should slowly clear from W to E this evening. It’s possible some snow/sleet mixes in but nothing crazy. The S side of passing high pressure should then improve conditions overnight into Friday morning. Clouds and rain should then

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Mixed Conditions (Dec 28-Jan 1)

Mixed Conditions (Dec 28-Jan 1)

Jonathan Carr 🕔11:46, 28.Dec 2020

Discussion: Today (Monday) should remain relatively mild and unsettled with conditions improving/temperatures dropping this evening/overnight. A large area of high pressure should then dominate the entire E US for Tuesday and Wednesday with colder temperatures and clear skies. Thursday and

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Cold and Dry (Dec 25-27)

Cold and Dry (Dec 25-27)

Jonathan Carr 🕔13:42, 25.Dec 2020

Discussion: A pretty solid wind event for much of NJ last night. There were a few spots in NNJ/CNJ who never gusted above the 30-40mph range. But most other places saw 40-60mph, some higher. SWNJ was gusting to 70mph before

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Dec 24: Wind Event Approaching

Dec 24: Wind Event Approaching

Jonathan Carr 🕔14:37, 24.Dec 2020

Discussion: Nothing has changed since Tuesday’s article regarding the physics of tonight. We have a deep trough swinging negative with a raging 250mb S jet passing over NJ. To our W, we’re expecting closed-off lows in the mid-to-upper levels (700-500mb)

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Dec 22: Wind Event Detected

Dec 22: Wind Event Detected

Jonathan Carr 🕔14:38, 22.Dec 2020

Discussion: If Christmas is going to experience any kind of weather, please, for goodness sake, let it snow. Not a wind event! Are you serious Clark? </rant> A strong mid-latitude cyclone will track to the NW of NJ up into

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Mixed Conditions (Dec 21-25)

Mixed Conditions (Dec 21-25)

Jonathan Carr 🕔14:56, 21.Dec 2020

Discussion: A very meridional upper jet pattern with a lot of below-average geopotential height anomaly periods is expected through the rest of this year and into January. The AO and NAO teleconnections continue to model negative for this period. This

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Cold Behind the Storm (Dec 18-20)

Cold Behind the Storm (Dec 18-20)

Jonathan Carr 🕔15:26, 17.Dec 2020

Discussion: The upper jet will stay to the S of NJ from now until Saturday evening. This is because the departing mid-latitude cyclone and approaching high to our SW are pulling colder air downwards from our N. The jet should

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Dec 17: Coastal Winter Storm Update

Dec 17: Coastal Winter Storm Update

Jonathan Carr 🕔00:30, 17.Dec 2020

Discussion: The coastal storm low is currently just off the tip of Cape May. Here’s the latest SPC Mesoanalysis data: The low should track just offshore of Atlantic City, NJ by ~3am and then gradually pull away to the E

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Dec 16: Coastal Winter Storm Begins

Dec 16: Coastal Winter Storm Begins

Jonathan Carr 🕔11:27, 16.Dec 2020

Discussion: Some radar returns are starting to show up to the SW of NJ which means precipitation, whether wintry or rain, should begin falling by early afternoon today. This is going to be the last predictive forecast article for this

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Dec 15: Winter Storm Approaching!

Dec 15: Winter Storm Approaching!

Jonathan Carr 🕔16:28, 15.Dec 2020

Discussion: As I said before, this system is going to break a lot of snow lover hearts in SNJ (I’m one of them) while delivering a crippling winter blow to NNJ. A NNJ KABOOM. The trends in model guidance that

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