March 21: Afternoon Winter Storm Update
Discussion: Most of New Jersey has changed over to all snow now. So far, most snowfall has occurred during the warmest part of the day with the highest sun angle. This is why much of what has fallen has not
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Posts From Jonathan Carr
March 21: Morning Winter Storm Update
Discussion: We have a snow/sleet/rain line/situation currently near the I-95 corridor. I expect this to advance to the SE between now and afternoon hours (possibly earlier) as the low-mid level temperatures crash. Precipitation should then bring this colder air down
March 20: Final Call Snow Map
Please click here for full-resolution snow map! Discussion: I want to start off saying that this forecast has high bust potential in either direction. Model guidance and live observations have been ridiculously tricky to get a hold of even now,
March 19: Winter Storm Update
Please click here for full-resolution wave 1 snow map! Please click here for full-resolution wave 2 snow map! Discussion: The overall Tuesday-Wednesday event is now broken down into two individual waves. The first wave is mostly due to the Pacific shortwave
March 18: Snow Targeting New Jersey
Please click here for full-resolution snow map! Discussion: The Pacific shortwave involved should track across the US from W to E along ~38N between now and Tuesday morning. Some northern stream energy should then try and inject into the trough Tuesday
March 17: Snow Storm Update
Discussion: The models are still all over the place with regard to surface output. The upper-levels are starting to make a little more sense however. It looks like we’ll see a brief +PNA spike fed by an Alaskan upper-level low
March 15: East Coast Winter Storm Signal Growing
Discussion: Given the active pattern we’re in, I’m gaining confidence in an east coast winter storm next ~Tuesday-Wednesday. My argument is not because of the modeled surface snow maps flying around. About the only guidance worth reasonably considering from this range are
March 13: Final Storm Update and a Look Ahead
Discussion: In my opinion the Upper-Level Low (ULL) moved into the Great Lakes region a hair quicker than expected yesterday-overnight. Also, it crossed the US border with a heading a hair closer to due S rather than S/SE. This rippled through to
March 12: Winter Storm Approaching
Please click here for full-resolution snow map! Discussion: The primary coastal surface low has formed off South Carolina. It should track just off OBX today and then just to the SE of the 40N/70W benchmark by Tuesday morning. At 500mb, the
March 11: Winter Storm Expected
Please click here for full-resolution snow map! Discussion: Today is a relatively mild nice sunny day and with good reason. The sun angle is rapidly increasing and the clock adjustment even further brings it home. I want this idea to set
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