Discussion: This week should start on the chilly side but moderate by the weekend. Departing high pressure over SE Canada, specifically its return flow, is to blame for the extended marine cold shot. As that high moves away towards Europe
Discussion: The overall upper-level trough behind our storm system will be moving out but not before the backside of it swings through New England from NW to SE. The bottom of this trough should influence New Jersey colder for the
Discussion: It appears EPA and NWNJ will be first to taper off over the hours. EPA saw expected totals today but NWNJ did not mostly due to confluence/drier air. NENJ might hang on another hour or two beyond simply because of
Discussion: Most of New Jersey has changed over to all snow now. So far, most snowfall has occurred during the warmest part of the day with the highest sun angle. This is why much of what has fallen has not
Discussion: We have a snow/sleet/rain line/situation currently near the I-95 corridor. I expect this to advance to the SE between now and afternoon hours (possibly earlier) as the low-mid level temperatures crash. Precipitation should then bring this colder air down
Please click here for full-resolution snow map! Discussion: I want to start off saying that this forecast has high bust potential in either direction. Model guidance and live observations have been ridiculously tricky to get a hold of even now,
Please click here for full-resolution wave 1 snow map! Please click here for full-resolution wave 2 snow map! Discussion: The overall Tuesday-Wednesday event is now broken down into two individual waves. The first wave is mostly due to the Pacific shortwave
Please click here for full-resolution snow map! Discussion: The Pacific shortwave involved should track across the US from W to E along ~38N between now and Tuesday morning. Some northern stream energy should then try and inject into the trough Tuesday
Discussion: The models are still all over the place with regard to surface output. The upper-levels are starting to make a little more sense however. It looks like we’ll see a brief +PNA spike fed by an Alaskan upper-level low
Discussion: Given the active pattern we’re in, I’m gaining confidence in an east coast winter storm next ~Tuesday-Wednesday. My argument is not because of the modeled surface snow maps flying around. About the only guidance worth reasonably considering from this range are
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