Jan 17: Winter Storm Update

Jan 17: Winter Storm Update

Jonathan Carr 🕔16:28, 17.Jan 2020

Discussion: I’m feeling a little better today but my wife and daughter are in the worst stage of the flu. I’m about 2 days ahead of them regarding symptoms and timing. Thank you so much for your thoughtful expressions and

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Jan 16: Initial Map for Saturday

Jan 16: Initial Map for Saturday

Jonathan Carr 🕔15:59, 16.Jan 2020

Discussion: Today I tested positive for the flu (infuenza A strain) and so did my 5-month old daughter. It’s been a very bad week and I apologize for seeming to be MIA. I’ve been trying to rest and hydrate as

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Jan 14: Early Thoughts on Weekend Snow

Jan 14: Early Thoughts on Weekend Snow

Jonathan Carr 🕔17:05, 14.Jan 2020

Discussion: Our weekend winter storm system has trended warmer since yesterday. The main reason? The upper-level low associated with the trough that will be swinging in is now modeled stronger. This propagates down to the surface by intensifying the primary

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Jan 13: Winter Storm Detected

Jan 13: Winter Storm Detected

Jonathan Carr 🕔16:22, 13.Jan 2020

Discussion: On Friday morning low pressure will form somewhere in the Wyoming area and track eastward towards the E US. This low will encounter a strong (1040mb+) blocking surface high over SE Canada/extreme N Maine.  This high will do two

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Mild Start Cold Finish (Jan 13-17)

Mild Start Cold Finish (Jan 13-17)

Jonathan Carr 🕔14:02, 12.Jan 2020

Discussion: We are through with the freakishly warm January conditions after today. Anomalously high ridging will continue over the E US this week but fade. That means that Mondy through Thursday daytime hours will still be above-average in temperature but

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Warm for Winter (Jan 10-12)

Warm for Winter (Jan 10-12)

Jonathan Carr 🕔09:44, 10.Jan 2020

Discussion: The upper jet will be WAY to the N of NJ this weekend…like up in SE Canada. This will shape a highly anomalous ridge over the E US through Sunday. A large area of high pressure will set up

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Jan 7: Snowfall Approaching

Jan 7: Snowfall Approaching

Jonathan Carr 🕔11:02, 7.Jan 2020

Discussion: Our system has trended towards an expanded field of snowfall. It hasn’t trended towards more snow than yesterday’s expectation just further N into New Jersey. There is going to be a sharp cutoff of precipitation on the N/NW side

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Jan 6: Set the Alarms

Jan 6: Set the Alarms

Jonathan Carr 🕔16:46, 6.Jan 2020

Discussion: A very weak disturbance will form overnight tonight in the Tennessee Valley and track through the Delmarva Peninsula area by early Wednesday morning. This should deliver a period of rain-to-snow across parts of CNJ/SNJ between about 5pm and 10pm

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Snow in the Forecast (Jan 6-10)

Snow in the Forecast (Jan 6-10)

Jonathan Carr 🕔16:44, 5.Jan 2020

Discussion: Tonight we should dip into the upper-20s/lower-30s (NNJ/SNJ) with NNJ/CNJ favored for a few flurries and snow showers. Then we’re pretty seasonal from Monday through Wednesday temperature wise…above freezing during the day and below freezing overnight. Tuesday PM is

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Unsettled Conditions Possibly End as Snow (Jan 3-5)

Unsettled Conditions Possibly End as Snow (Jan 3-5)

Jonathan Carr 🕔16:52, 2.Jan 2020

Discussion: Conditions over the north pole, specifically the Polar Vortex (PV), remain unfavorable for a sustained cold and snowy pattern through at least January 15th. Upstream eastern Pacific conditions, specifically the EPO and PNA, remain unfavorable for any large slow

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