Discussion: Upper-level flow will be heavily influenced by a SE US ridge between Bermuda and the mainland. The N jet should remain zonal but press against the SE US ridge’s N anti-cyclonic flow. The pattern doesn’t hint at becoming meridional
Discussion: The upper-jet looks very flat and zonal this weekend. Upper-level geopotential heights look average to slightly-below average. While boring aloft, the lower-levels/surface conditions should respond as follows. Today we have the leading edge of unsettledness beginning by late-afternoon/early-evening. This
Discussion: Laura is a category 4 (major) hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico heading for a landfall just on the LA side of the TX/LA gulf coast border later this evening. There’s actually a small chance of reaching category 5
Discussion: New Jersey is currently on the W (back) side of a trough that is primarily developing over SE Canada and NE US. A small upper-level disturbance is rounding the back-side of this trough which is enhancing the jet streak
Discussion: Let’s first talk about the setup for NJ before we talk about the tropics. We currently have a progressive trough swinging through the NE US. It’s nose will push through the N Mid-Atlantic US (NJ) on Tuesday which could
Discussion: We have two upper-jets involved in this weekend’s pattern. The southern jet has formed a trough over the general interior SE US. The northern jet is a bit more zonal and should eventually take over as the primary for
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Discussion: A shallow but sharp trough will swing through the region for the first half of the week. NJ will see SW flow aloft for Monday into Tuesday then NW flow aloft for Wednesday into Thursday. By Friday it’s back
Discussion: To address today (Thursday, Aug 13) real quick, we still have an area of convergence along a near-stationary frontal boundary positioned right over the I-95/NJTP corridor. This is producing more near-stationary downpours and thunderstorms for CNJ and SNJ capable
Discussion: Again, not much to speak of in the upper-levels. The upper-jet should stay well N of NJ with any jet streaks weak and zonal. 500mb height analysis indicates we’ll be under a weak ridge centered over SE Canada/NE US/N
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