Colder Conditions (Jan 18-22)

Colder Conditions (Jan 18-22)

Jonathan Carr 🕔14:53, 17.Jan 2021

Discussion: Tonight should start a prolonged colder pattern for NJ. Nothing record breaking, just colder. It should already feel colder today than the warm sector air mass we saw earlier this weekend. This week should behave like a V graph

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Mixed Conditions (Jan 15-17)

Mixed Conditions (Jan 15-17)

Jonathan Carr 🕔15:18, 14.Jan 2021

Discussion: The most important feature of our current forecast is the disrupted Pacific jet plowing into the W US. We’re going to see a -EPO/-PNA setup start to take shape. This will allow ridging to occur near Alaska and extreme

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Chilly and Dry (Jan 11-15)

Chilly and Dry (Jan 11-15)

Jonathan Carr 🕔11:53, 11.Jan 2021

Discussion: The Tuesday-Wednesday storm signal has vanished to the S just like the signal last Friday. Strong consensus in the 5-8 day range. Fell apart at 5 day and in mark. Seems to be the theme which indicates the models

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Cold and Clear (Jan 9-10)

Cold and Clear (Jan 9-10)

Jonathan Carr 🕔01:01, 9.Jan 2021

Discussion: So that everyone is on the same page, an extremely favorable pattern supportive of winter storm development can come and go without any snowstorms actually hitting NJ. These lyrics probably belong in an Alanis Morissette song or something, but

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Jan 7: Snow Signal Update

Jan 7: Snow Signal Update

Jonathan Carr 🕔15:23, 7.Jan 2021

Discussion: This morning’s 6Z NAM run was about as close as the Jan 8-9 (tomorrow-Saturday) storm signal has been modeled over the past few days (see below image). The more recent 12Z model suite has re-affirmed a miss to the

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Jan 5: Tracking Wintry Storm Signals

Jan 5: Tracking Wintry Storm Signals

Jonathan Carr 🕔14:57, 5.Jan 2021

Discussion: We have two immediate synoptic signals to track. One is for this Friday-Saturday (Jan 8-9) and the other is for next Tuesday (Jan 12). There’s another Jan 15 but let’s deal with the first two that are now inside

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Boring Week. Watching the Weekend (Jan 4-9)

Boring Week. Watching the Weekend (Jan 4-9)

Jonathan Carr 🕔15:02, 3.Jan 2021

Discussion: We’re just about through the lull after this morning’s precip burst. The upper-level shortwave will now interact with the surface low off the coast and fill back in precipitation. You can already see it happening in EPA. The final

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Jan 2: More Snow for NNJ

Jan 2: More Snow for NNJ

Jonathan Carr 🕔15:48, 2.Jan 2021

Discussion: After today’s milder conditions, all NJ temperatures should crash overnight tonight. We’re probably looking at a range of 20s to 30s from elevations to sea come 5-6am Sunday morning. The back-side of the departing low’s northerly cyclonic flow will

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