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Posts From Jonathan Carr

Mild Weather Pattern Detected!

Mild Weather Pattern Detected!

🕔14:36, 27.Feb 2026

Discussion: Friday and Saturday should verify on the milder side. Some spots hit 50 on Friday but most of NJ should break into the 50s, possibly tap near-60, on Saturday. Both days dry but could feature fog/freezing fog overnight as

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Winter Fading Fast (For Now)

Winter Fading Fast (For Now)

🕔15:26, 26.Feb 2026

Discussion: The latest model data is significantly backing off all snow chances in the next week or so and instead is gearing up for a lead-in to abnormally warm temperatures March 5-forward. There are still a few waves to discuss,

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This Week’s Snow Remains Meh. Watching Mon-Tues

This Week’s Snow Remains Meh. Watching Mon-Tues

🕔16:09, 25.Feb 2026

Discussion: The clipper came through overnight/this morning and dropped a coating to an inch or so before quickly melting with temp increases. Minimal impact. Tomorrow night’s slider wave, if it happens far N enough, is looking more like a conversational

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Tracking Some Weak Sauce

Tracking Some Weak Sauce

🕔13:14, 24.Feb 2026

Discussion: You can really feel the late-February higher sun angle and climatology now in play. I first felt it last Sunday (Feb 15) when only 1-3 inches of snowfall stuck (mostly on grass only) from 3-6 inches falling out of

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Historical Snowstorm Underway

Historical Snowstorm Underway

🕔12:11, 22.Feb 2026

Discussion: This will be our final call snow map and forecast for this system. We’ve upgraded NNJ to now be all in the 12+ zone. That puts all of NJ in a KABOOM and still leaves Dude Where’s my Carr?

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Blizzard Nor’easter Snowstorm Developing for New Jersey

Blizzard Nor’easter Snowstorm Developing for New Jersey Updated

🕔15:55, 21.Feb 2026

Discussion: I’m sorry all of Jersey. But YOU ARE IN THE KABOOM ZONE NOW. This storm is going to bring heavy snowfall, gusty winds, power outages, and coastal flooding to New Jersey between Sunday (tomorrow) morning and Monday evening (Feb

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Major Nor’easter Snowstorm a GO for New Jersey this Sun-Mon

Major Nor’easter Snowstorm a GO for New Jersey this Sun-Mon Updated

🕔16:55, 20.Feb 2026

Discussion: Today we’re going to narrow the range of possible snowstorm outcomes to a first call forecast. There’s still some disagreement in snowfall amounts and timing due to disagreement in the upper levels meaning suboptimal confidence. Especially with a phase

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Sun-Mon NJ Snowstorm Remains Uncertain

Sun-Mon NJ Snowstorm Remains Uncertain

🕔16:31, 19.Feb 2026

Discussion: Some of the latest model guidance starts this snowstorm as early as 6-7am Sunday morning. That puts NJ potentially a little over 60 hours away from first flakes. The problem is that we still have a significant amount of

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Weekend Snowstorm Not Off the Table

Weekend Snowstorm Not Off the Table

🕔16:20, 18.Feb 2026

Discussion: Not much has changed from yesterday. We’re still 4 days away. Deep breaths. Still a lot that can happen to either reinforce a major snowstorm hit or cause an out to sea miss. I will say though, I am

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New Jersey Weekend Snowstorm Possible

New Jersey Weekend Snowstorm Possible

🕔15:01, 17.Feb 2026

Discussion: On Friday the 13th, the signal for this weekend was identified from specific teleconnection behavior analysis, specifically the point at which the negative NAO crosses into positive and a transient spike in the PNA/dip of the EPO. This traditionally

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