Discussion: On Friday the 13th, the signal for this weekend was identified from specific teleconnection behavior analysis, specifically the point at which the negative NAO crosses into positive and a transient spike in the PNA/dip of the EPO. This traditionally
Discussion: It’s important to re-emphasize that this is not a major snowstorm. At the end of the day, it’s a weak surface low becoming a weak coastal low that’s going to clip parts of NJ with wet snow on its
Discussion: This snow potential Sunday night into early Monday morning has been beat to death for the past week+ here and especially in KABOOM Club. We identified this period as a storm signal early and have been walking it in
Discussion: This weekend outlook will be in article form as we are still watching Sunday night into Monday morning for potential wintry impacts in New Jersey. But first lets cover the period leading up to that. A trough, which brought
Discussion: I am gaining high confidence that we won’t see the caliber of cold again, that we experienced end of January through yesterday…where highs top out at 15 and overnight lows go into the negative. This past weekend was likely
Discussion: At the upper levels, the 250mb-observed jet carves out a trough pattern for the E US through the rest of this weekend. 500mb geopotential height analysis indicates a pure polar N stream energy phasing into a S stream trough
Discussion: We’re going to stay in the “reloading trough” pattern until about Tuesday, Feb 10. This should mark the end of the brutal “core of winter” cold that we’ve had to endure since about Jan 16ish. We’ve had a few
Discussion: The cover shot above is from NOAA GOES satellite imagery showing snow cover across the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast and plains regions of the US. Between the snowstorm last weekend not melting yet, due to Arctic air, and what just hit
Discussion: The trend out to sea on model guidance continues. At the upper levels, the trough is now modeled with too positive of an axis to allow a storm to bring snow W more than 10-20 miles away from the
Discussion: You can lean towards a few ideas at this point based live observations of some of the steering currents involved for the immediate players of this storm system. Models are very much in windshield wiper mode. Models showing hits
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