Nor’easter Developing
Discussion: Model guidance remains split on the track of this weekend’s nor’easter. I am however giving it a go as in, it’s happening. The energy has been coming together off the SE US for a day or two now and
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Weekend Nor’easter Update
Discussion: I’ve been keeping an eye on the data guidance for this weekend’s potential nor’easter. The GFS, GFS AI and Canadian models remain offshore with their solutions, suggesting the phasing dynamics happening too late to wrap it up into a
Possible Nor’easter Detected
Discussion: I know we’ve been looking at this possibility for a bit in KABOOM Club. I wish to emphasize the uncertainty mainly due to a complex system of moving parts (phasing, etc.) having to come together just perfectly for the
Alright Until the Rain Starts
Discussion: Most 250mb upper jet and 500mb geopotential height analysis is unremarkable for lower level expectations this weekend into next week. We’re still in a near-zonal flow pattern oscillating between NW and W flow for NJ, which has been responsible
Warmth Humidity and Ultimately Rain Returns
Discussion: The upper jet, observed at 250mb, should stay just to the N of NJ for the rest of this week and weekend with high pressure over or to the S of NJ. At 500mb, that’s going to build up
A Rainy Saturday Night into Sunday Morning
Discussion: The upper flow should remain zonal for the weekend but then kink into a NW flow pattern for next week. At the surface this means humid and rain conditions for NJ between Saturday afternoon/evening and Sunday around noon. Improvement
September is Septembering
Discussion: What a Labor Day Weekend of pleasant weather conditions! So, we’re well into September now and we’ve lost 139 minutes of daylight since the summer solstice. 14 calendar days remain in Summer 2026 with meteorological fall underway since Sept
Good Stuff Incoming!
Discussion: The stormy humid “ring of fire” pattern is coming to an end after one more night of storms (tonight – Friday night). I will be tracking with radar observation posts. The cold front should push through from N to
Stormy Period Detected
Discussion: This week into Labor Day Weekend looks interesting to me. It could be our most storm-potent Ring of Fire pattern this entire year. And for that reason, we are in daily article mode rather than the traditional weekly outlook.
More Transitional Conditions
Discussion: The models handled the last two days rather well. Specifically in the idea of all of NJ except for SENJ seeing the stronger storms Thursday and then only SENJ seeing some storms today. The storms have cleared the coast
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