Discussion: The general upper level flow pattern should remain in place this week. A ridge currently over the SW US will slowly advance E towards the SE US by this weekend. At the same time, a trough in SE Canada
Discussion: High levels of humidity will remain the headline through at least Tuesday of next week. We’re not dealing with record actual temperatures, however the combination of 88-95 temps with dew points above 70 will push higher relative humidity values
Discussion: For most of this week, the upper-jet should stay to the N of NJ leaving us in a swampy humid air mass under building heights (ridge). Tonight (Monday night) into tomorrow (Tuesday) is the only exception when a weak
Discussion: The upper jet is rather unremarkable for the next week or so. No major dips (troughs) or peaks (ridges). The only thing that jumps out at me is SW flow aloft from the decaying front of the trough leading
Discussion: We are looking at two parts to the main event that are already underway for NNJ (currently 3:50pm). These parts are attached to the low and will rotate through NJ as I have them illustrated in the above cover
Discussion: Some much needed New Jersey rainfall is looking promising for the next few days, especially Tuesday PM into Wednesday AM. For the last few months, most rainfall has occurred from frontal systems and training thunderstorms. This opportunity is more
Discussion: I apologize in advance how this post might contribute towards summer shore traffic, but it looks like one of the best mid-summer weekends I’ve ever seen. The cold front came through yesterday (Wednesday) and cleared a lot of humidity
Discussion: The image above illustrates my best approximation of the warm front (red), cold front (blue) and today’s main cluster of thunderstorms (black). The warm front is almost through NJ (moving SW to NE). It just sparked a cell for
Discussion: Before we continue, I want to say that life-threatening/damaging winds from severe weather (straight-line or tornado) are a bad thing. I take my discussions very seriously when including such in my forecast, even if just a small, isolated threat
Discussion: I want to touch on yesterday (Thursday) before looking at tomorrow. As someone who spent almost 40 years of my life growing up in the Manahawkin area, I can only remember a few times where that much water fell
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