Unsettled. Heat Wave on the Way
Discussion: The upper-level zonal flow pattern this weekend is going to evolve into what we call a summer death ridge for next week. This means the upper jet will buckle northwards well to the N of NJ and leave NJ
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Thunderstorms Developing
Discussion: We’ll start this week off in article mode since there is potentially damaging weather on the way. First, we have a series of weak low pressure tracking to our immediate NW (likely across NWPA from the Ohio River Valley
Weekend Outlook – Solid Improvement
Discussion: The upper levels continue to indicate a zonal flow across the US this weekend into next week. This translates to more of a W/NW to W/SW wind direction at the surface which you’ll see in the days broken down
Another Buildup and Reset
Discussion: The upper levels suggest a zonal flow this week with height anomalies leaning slightly negative for NJ. At the surface this should produce another beautiful day (like Monday – today) for Tuesday but then unsettled humidity Wed-Fri. Wednesday seems
Cold Front to Knock Down Humidity
Discussion: The current tropical air mass (beneath the E US ridge) will give us one more hot and humid day today (Friday). We’ll mostly be in a warm sector flow ahead of a cold front which will make the heat
Time for Some Changes
Discussion: This article will begin with a rant. The last thunderstorm outbreak (Saturday-Sunday) really bothered me, specifically the disconnect between the professional forecasting base and public consumers of weather forecasting. I absolutely hate that Severe Thunderstorms (for wind) are determined
Who turned up the Heat?
Discussion: The jet stream will remain N of NJ (ridging) for the foreseeable future, except for this Saturday into Sunday when a positive and progressive trough will quickly move through. This is not enough for a washout but more of
Sustained Warmth Settles In
Discussion: Upper-level analysis confirms that we are now under the influence of the Omega block, particularly the N flow moving down and around the W side of the leading trough. This is going to produce northerly winds in general between
We’re Getting There
Discussion: The Omega block, mentioned earlier this week in the weekly outlook, is taking shape and will deliver a cooler/drier NW flow to NJ this weekend (rounding the E trough of the Omega block setup). For that reason, Saturday might
From Stormy to Beautiful
Discussion: It’s been some roller coaster of temperatures the last month or so. I’ve seen record low high temps (ex: afternoon high only reaches 58) and record high temps (afternoon high reaches 98) occur in the last few weeks and
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