Discussion: The nor’easter is out of here and good riddance! Although I must admit, it felt kind of good to track a low-pressure system close to the 40N/70W benchmark. I don’t think we’re going to see the last of systems
Discussion: I want to reemphasize a few points. Awesome followers can skip this paragraph. Throughout this entire week, I maintained that areas away from the ocean would see a run-of-mill manageable rain and wind event experienced many times before. I
Discussion Models have trended even more towards a harder New Jersey hit from this weekend’s nor’easter. Here are the updated rain, wind and coastal flooding impacts with graphics and text: Hazardous Impacts Rain The storm’s outer precipitation bands are nearing
Discussion: We’ve beaten the physics of this nor’easter setup to death this week. Organizing low pressure off the SE US/OBX phased into low that will run into a block. The block will trap the storm into at least a stall/retrograde
Discussion: Model guidance remains split on the track of this weekend’s nor’easter. I am however giving it a go as in, it’s happening. The energy has been coming together off the SE US for a day or two now and
Discussion: I’ve been keeping an eye on the data guidance for this weekend’s potential nor’easter. The GFS, GFS AI and Canadian models remain offshore with their solutions, suggesting the phasing dynamics happening too late to wrap it up into a
Discussion: I know we’ve been looking at this possibility for a bit in KABOOM Club. I wish to emphasize the uncertainty mainly due to a complex system of moving parts (phasing, etc.) having to come together just perfectly for the
Discussion: Most 250mb upper jet and 500mb geopotential height analysis is unremarkable for lower level expectations this weekend into next week. We’re still in a near-zonal flow pattern oscillating between NW and W flow for NJ, which has been responsible
Discussion: The upper jet, observed at 250mb, should stay just to the N of NJ for the rest of this week and weekend with high pressure over or to the S of NJ. At 500mb, that’s going to build up
Discussion: The upper flow should remain zonal for the weekend but then kink into a NW flow pattern for next week. At the surface this means humid and rain conditions for NJ between Saturday afternoon/evening and Sunday around noon. Improvement
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