Jan 17: Winter Storm Update
Discussion: I’m feeling a little better today but my wife and daughter are in the worst stage of the flu. I’m about 2 days ahead of them regarding symptoms and timing. Thank you so much for your thoughtful expressions and
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Posts From Jonathan Carr
Jan 16: Initial Map for Saturday
Discussion: Today I tested positive for the flu (infuenza A strain) and so did my 5-month old daughter. It’s been a very bad week and I apologize for seeming to be MIA. I’ve been trying to rest and hydrate as
Jan 14: Early Thoughts on Weekend Snow
Discussion: Our weekend winter storm system has trended warmer since yesterday. The main reason? The upper-level low associated with the trough that will be swinging in is now modeled stronger. This propagates down to the surface by intensifying the primary
Jan 13: Winter Storm Detected
Discussion: On Friday morning low pressure will form somewhere in the Wyoming area and track eastward towards the E US. This low will encounter a strong (1040mb+) blocking surface high over SE Canada/extreme N Maine. This high will do two
Mild Start Cold Finish (Jan 13-17)
Discussion: We are through with the freakishly warm January conditions after today. Anomalously high ridging will continue over the E US this week but fade. That means that Mondy through Thursday daytime hours will still be above-average in temperature but
Warm for Winter (Jan 10-12)
Discussion: The upper jet will be WAY to the N of NJ this weekend…like up in SE Canada. This will shape a highly anomalous ridge over the E US through Sunday. A large area of high pressure will set up
Jan 7: Snowfall Approaching
Discussion: Our system has trended towards an expanded field of snowfall. It hasn’t trended towards more snow than yesterday’s expectation just further N into New Jersey. There is going to be a sharp cutoff of precipitation on the N/NW side
Jan 6: Set the Alarms
Discussion: A very weak disturbance will form overnight tonight in the Tennessee Valley and track through the Delmarva Peninsula area by early Wednesday morning. This should deliver a period of rain-to-snow across parts of CNJ/SNJ between about 5pm and 10pm
Snow in the Forecast (Jan 6-10)
Discussion: Tonight we should dip into the upper-20s/lower-30s (NNJ/SNJ) with NNJ/CNJ favored for a few flurries and snow showers. Then we’re pretty seasonal from Monday through Wednesday temperature wise…above freezing during the day and below freezing overnight. Tuesday PM is
Unsettled Conditions Possibly End as Snow (Jan 3-5)
Discussion: Conditions over the north pole, specifically the Polar Vortex (PV), remain unfavorable for a sustained cold and snowy pattern through at least January 15th. Upstream eastern Pacific conditions, specifically the EPO and PNA, remain unfavorable for any large slow
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