Discussion: upper-level ridging should dominate the first half of the weekend pattern with high pressure at the surface. This should keep us mostly dry from now through Saturday night. A weak shortwave should then track through the Great Lakes (well
Discussion: Nothing crazy to talk about after the recent synoptic coastal storm systems. The upper-levels are barely conversational with transient positive and negative height anomalies in a progressive flow. A frontal passage should bring some rain across the region between
Discussion: Good morning! In the upper-levels we have some remnant energy barely recognizable as a short-wave on 500mb analysis. Just a small hiccup in the establishing E US/W Atlantic Ridge. At the surface we have an extra-tropical cyclone (now establishing
Discussion: Remnants of Nestor are approaching in the form of an extra-tropical cyclone. Not a nor’easter by my criteria but certainly a coastal storm. There are no tricks in the upper-levels. This system is heading into an establishing ridge and
Discussion: The data has trended wetter and windier for Sunday’s coastal system brush. I’ll say right off the bat that areas along and NW of the Turnpike will likely see minimal impacts if any. Areas along the SENJ/ECNJ coast however
Discussion: A trough will move out with the departing nor’easter. But not before keeping the region colder and still-breezy tonight (Thursday) through part of Friday. Upper-level heights should then build from Saturday through Tuesday. This should keep it dry with
Discussion: Our coastal storm is just getting started. The upper-level low is intensifying over the Great Lakes with an initial surface low directly underneath. This Great Lakes surface low will transfer to the surface energy currently moving up the coast
Discussion: Our coastal storm players are on the field. You can see the energy across the SE US (just N of the Gulf Coast) which will turn and track up the coast and interact with the strong Upper-Level Low (ULL).
Discussion: Another October coastal storm is about to develop and hit coastal New England. This is the long-range storm signal that showed up a little over a week ago and with good reason. The upper-levels have remained impressively modeled well
Discussion: The original October 18-22 storm signal will actually come into fruition but not for the Mid-Atlantic US…rather for the NorthEast US for Oct 17-18. It was a solid signal which is comforting to see re: long-range ensemble performance. First
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