Snowstorm Signal Hunting
Discussion: This article is not a forecast. It’s a deep dive into the future physics of the atmosphere for the purposes of snowstorm signal hunting. If you’re looking for a quick “is it going to snow or is it not
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Posts From Jonathan Carr
January Thaw Commences
Discussion: Some snow showers and flurries pushed across NNJ/CNJ today with little to no accumulation. This is the sayonara precipitation to the cold air for a short break as warm air pushes into the region for this week. We currently
January Thaw Detected after this Weekend
Discussion: This article/report will be looked down upon by the winter/snow lover. But it cannot stay cold and snowy the entire winter. Let’s recap for a moment. Since Thanksgiving Weekend 2025 (Black Friday to be exact), New Jersey has seen
Snow Showers to Ring in the New Year
Discussion: It’s hard to even call this wave a clipper with how weak it is. But a dissolving clipper will push through the Mid-Atlantic US tonight. As far as the snow showers that a clipper typically brings, it really only
New Year’s Eve-Day Outlook
Discussion: 2025 is almost over. A few more days of colder conditions and then we step into what looks like an active pattern in January with below average temperatures and above average snowfall. Most of New Jersey should dip into
Closing out 2025
Discussion: This outlook will be in article format covering a few things including a storm recap of what and why it happened, the rest of this weekend’s outlook and lastly a look ahead at the next signals. Storm Recap Our
Winter Storm Approaching
Discussion: I wish this was an all-snow event, or even a typical snow/rain event with a well-understood baroclinic boundary. It would be much easier to create the final wintry impact map. But it’s not. This is a very difficult battleground
Friday-Saturday Winter Storm Update
Discussion: Last night and early this morning, the data jumped warmer but has since returned to what we feel is reality today. We do not think the NAM is correct in its handling of geopotential height fields across the Mid-Atlantic
Friday-Saturday Winter Storm a GO!
Discussion: The jet pattern, governing the thermal gradient boundary (boundary) remains locked in a configuration across S Canada/N US from W to E, then down over the Great lakes and through the Mid-Atlantic. For this upcoming system, it will be
Winter Storm Detected!
Discussion: The jet stream pattern, dictating the thermal gradient boundary (boundary) remains in a configuration of blowing across S Canada W to E, dipping down over the E Great Lakes and running through the Mid-Atlantic US. This will keep those
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