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Posts From Jonathan Carr

Another NWNJ Wintry Graze

Another NWNJ Wintry Graze

🕔16:50, 9.Dec 2025

Discussion: An initial wave will track across SE Canada tonight (Tuesday night) with no impact to NJ but thatt will leave, in its wake, a thermal gradient boundary for trailing wave/stronger low to track along from the Great Lakes across

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Tracking Snow this Week-Weekend

Tracking Snow this Week-Weekend

🕔16:06, 8.Dec 2025

Discussion: We’re going to switch into daily article mode this week (rather than a single weekly outlook) as there is a lot going on. First let’s talk about the current state of things. There’s all sorts of stratospheric warming and

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Trough Energy Pattern

Trough Energy Pattern

🕔15:14, 5.Dec 2025

Discussion: The light SNJ snowfall has ended and pushed out to sea. The biggest winners were S and E of the AC Expressway with flurries falling as far N as Burlington and Ocean Counties. A trailing round of lighter precipitation

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Snow in Southern NJ Tomorrow

Snow in Southern NJ Tomorrow

🕔16:15, 4.Dec 2025

Discussion: I know last night and today felt cold but there’s even colder air on its way this evening behind the cold front that’s currently pushing NW to SE over the Appalachian Mountains into NJ. I expect it to be

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Continuing to look at Fri-Sat Dec 5-6

Continuing to look at Fri-Sat Dec 5-6

🕔15:47, 3.Dec 2025

There’s high confidence that a strong cold front will push through Thursday afternoon/evening. This front will be driven by a piece of polar vortex energy and might as well be called an Arctic front. I think we’re starting to see

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Final Call for Tuesday NWNJ Snow

Final Call for Tuesday NWNJ Snow Updated

🕔16:55, 1.Dec 2025

Discussion: We’ve beat this weak NWNJ snow event to death at this point. This is our final call map heading into it. Live observations will begin late tonight as we look at the precipitation approaching from the W in real-time.

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Tuesday NWNJ Snowstorm a GO

Tuesday NWNJ Snowstorm a GO Updated

🕔16:55, 30.Nov 2025

Discussion: Currently, we have precipitation pushing through ahead of a cold front that is expected to pass through later this evening. The cold front is hooked to a low near Toronto that is pushing eastward into SE Canada/Maine. A warm

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Tuesday Snow Targeting NWNJ

Tuesday Snow Targeting NWNJ

🕔15:39, 29.Nov 2025

Discussion: To touch on the rest of the weekend very briefly, the rest of today/tonight (Saturday PM) looks chilly and dry. Some rain (less than a quarter inch likely) could push through Sunday (late-morning through early evening) ahead of a

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A Few Snow Chances on the Table for Jersey

A Few Snow Chances on the Table for Jersey

🕔15:45, 26.Nov 2025

Discussion: Our current situation (Wednesday afternoon) is very synoptic driven. A ~990mb low is tracking across the Great Lakes. It has dragged a warm front over NJ from S to N putting us in the warm sector for now. That’s

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Thanksgiving Weather Outlook

Thanksgiving Weather Outlook

🕔16:02, 24.Nov 2025

Discussion: We’re now in an expected milder air mass until about Wednesday, with Wednesday likely to peak as the warmest day of the week. We are then going to drop into a colder Thanksgiving Thursday through Sunday morning with another

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