Discussion: This will likely be the last update focused on Hurricane Erin. The rain is donezo and will continue to pull away from the coast overnight. All that is left from Erin are rough surf, dangerous rip currents and a
Discussion: Hurricane Erin’s track is pretty locked in at this point. She’s a few hundred miles NE of the Bahamas and has turned well to the NW. Erin will pass between two ridges (an area of weakness), one over SC/SE
Discussion: The first thing I want to emphasize is that Erin will not be striking New Jersey with a major hurricane, yet alone the US east coast. I’ve seen some content out there suggesting such and it lacks any sort
Discussion: Before I cover Erin’s latest update, let’s focus on New Jersey this weekend. A broad ridge across the US will build and flex for the Mid-Atlantic and NorthEast US from now until Sunday morning. A trough will then force
Discussion: We have ourselves a ~Verde origin system worth watching as it crosses the Atlantic Ocean via the trade winds over the next several days and ultimately decides where to go from either just over the NE Antilles or just
Discussion: The upper levels remain unremarkable with little deduction possible. A lot of weak zonal flow with nothing anomalous in either direction regarding geopotential height anomalies. We look rather dry through this weekend and likely through Tuesday as heat and
Discussion: The upper levels are rather unremarkable with little deduction…a rather zonal flow with no anomalous height anomalies in either direction. The main player this week will be high pressure stationed over the NE US/SE Canada, providing stiff onshore flow
Discussion: The upper jet is taking a little dip over NJ for this weekend into early next week. Not an anomalous trough by any means, it’s pretty weak, but at least a much needed cooldown after this past week. The
Discussion: The upper jet, observed at 250mb, should stay to the N of NJ through Wednesday and then dip below NJ heading into the weekend. This jives with 500mb analysis of a broad central US ridge giving way to a
Discussion: Upper level analysis for this week indicates a zonal jet overhead above the bottom tip of a progressive trough for Monday-Tuesday. A ridge then builds over NJ Wednesday into the weekend. This creates two different planets of look and
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