Discussion: Before we continue, I want to say that life-threatening/damaging winds from severe weather (straight-line or tornado) are a bad thing. I take my discussions very seriously when including such in my forecast, even if just a small, isolated threat
Discussion: I want to touch on yesterday (Thursday) before looking at tomorrow. As someone who spent almost 40 years of my life growing up in the Manahawkin area, I can only remember a few times where that much water fell
Discussion: Many NJ locations broke 90, if not are in the mid-to-upper 80s. Skies are hazy from the upstream wildfires and that should peak in-intensity tonight (Thursday) into tomorrow (Friday). The same type of linear segment of downpours/thunderstorms that happened
Discussion: A ridge will set up over the N Plains/N/S Dakota area this week. This will position upper flow over the Great Lakes and towards NJ and much of the N Mid-Atlantic US/New England. This pattern should stay locked until
Discussion: The upper levels are indicating changes in the future pattern. While the overall pattern keeps the jet stream N of NJ (inducing ridges), I am seeing a few periods where the jet stream wants to dip to near or
Discussion: The weak low that was over the Mid-Atlantic US and contributed heavily to yesterday’s flash flooding/heavy consistent rainfall, is now offshore just S of Cape Cod. This is now producing northerly flow behind it (to the W of it
Discussion: Temperatures exceeded 100 today (Thursday) in many locations. I doubt many NJ spots will dip below the 75-80 range overnight tonight (Thursday night). Isolated thunderstorms can pop up at any time but so far quiet. The death ridge/ring of
Discussion: When the sun sets like that, you know it will be hot the next day. And that’s what I expect some of the sunsets to look like this week. Between now and this weekend, the upper jet is going
Discussion: The upper-level zonal flow pattern this weekend is going to evolve into what we call a summer death ridge for next week. This means the upper jet will buckle northwards well to the N of NJ and leave NJ
Discussion: We’ll start this week off in article mode since there is potentially damaging weather on the way. First, we have a series of weak low pressure tracking to our immediate NW (likely across NWPA from the Ohio River Valley
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